The Sustainability Ceiling? Diminishing Returns to Perceived Carbon-Neutral Claim Credibility in Consumers’ Premium Purchase Intention: Exploratory Evidence from Indonesia
Keywords:
carbon-neutral claims, greenwashing skepticism, willingness to pay, non-linear effects, green marketing, IndonesiaAbstract
Prior research typically models the relationship between consumers’ perceptions of carbon-neutral product claims and their willingness to pay a premium as linear and positive. This study asks, in an exploratory manner, whether that relationship may instead be non-linear — rising at low-to-moderate levels of perceived claim credibility but flattening or reversing once such claims become pervasive — a pattern we term a “sustainability ceiling.”. Cross-sectional survey data were collected from 200 Indonesian consumers with recent experience purchasing environmentally labelled products. Perceived carbon-neutral claim credibility (X) and premium purchase intention (Y) were each measured with multi-item, five-point scales. A four-stage specification battery — linear baseline, quadratic extension, specification tests, and segmented (piecewise-linear) regression — was used to compare functional forms. A concave, threshold-type pattern was somewhat more consistent with the data than a purely linear one, with an estimated change-point located in the upper range of perceived credibility. Because the reversal rests on comparatively few high-credibility observations and on single-source, self-report data, the finding is preliminary and should be read as motivating, rather than establishing, the ceiling hypothesis. The study offers an exploratory, testable formalization of claim saturation and sets out a confirmatory research agenda together with a policy discussion relevant to the shift from disclosure toward third-party verification (e.g., EU Directive 2024/825).
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